Four Years of Full-Scale War: Russia Makes Almost No Advances, Ukrainian Forces Retake Territory
According to the OSINT project DeepState, over the past week, Russian forces captured only 21 sq. km of territory in Ukraine — the lowest figure since March 2025.
In some sectors, the situation looks even worse for Russia: in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukrainian forces have taken control of 150–400 sq. km since early February.
“Pause is necessary for them as much as for us. They are playing with [Donald] Trump and the whole world,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with Financial Times.
He added that Russia and Ukraine are at the “beginning of the end” of Europe’s largest conflict since World War II.
The main Russian advances last week were in Donetsk Oblast — about 46 sq. km, with another 5 sq. km in Luhansk Oblast. Meanwhile, since 13 February, Russia lost control of 32 sq. km in Dnipropetrovsk, which has now become a “gray zone.”
Russian army advances have slowed since early February:
- 2–8 February: captured 53 sq. km (down from 90 sq. km the week before)
- 9–15 February: captured only 28 sq. km
The last time Russian forces captured less than 21 sq. km was in March 2025.
The Air Assault Forces reported liberating 300 sq. km of Dnipropetrovsk since the start of the operation, while the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi noted 400 sq. km freed since late January.
OSINT analysts offer slightly more cautious estimates. John Helin of the Finnish Black Bird Group noted that much of the liberated territory has become a “gray zone.” The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Ukrainian forces retook 200 sq. km from 1–23 February in areas around Novopavlivka, Oleksandrivka, and Huliaipole but lost 35 sq. km elsewhere.
“Ukraine has managed to regain control of territories in three weeks that Russia took four months to capture,” added French analyst Clément Moulin, noting that Ukrainian forces restored most of the 2022 defensive line northwest of Huliaipole.
The Times reports that for the first time since the war began, Russian losses have exceeded the number of new recruits for three consecutive months, a situation Western military sources consider critical for Moscow. Zelensky also emphasized that Ukrainian successes are partly due to preventing Russian forces from using Starlink.
President Zelensky has expressed willingness to agree to a ceasefire along the current front line but categorically rejects any territorial concessions to Moscow.
He continues to urge the United States and Donald Trump to remain on Ukraine’s side and demands that the European Union provide a concrete date for Ukraine’s accession.
