A BILD analyst speculated that Russia could capture Kostiantynivka by the end of the year
Julian Röpke, a military analyst and editor-in-chief of the German newspaper BILD, believes it is highly likely that Russia could establish control over Kostiantynivka by the end of 2026. At the same time, he estimates that the situation around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will depend on the pace of the Russian troops’ advance and the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
According to Röpke, approximately one-third of Kostiantynivka currently remains under Ukrainian military control, although small Russian sabotage groups are infiltrating the city. At the same time, he estimates that about two-thirds of the city is either under Russian control or falls within the so-called “gray zone.”
The analyst explained that the “gray zone” does not imply full control by either side. He said that in such areas, Ukrainian forces continue to hold isolated positions, while Russian units move between buildings and also entrench themselves in shelters.
Röpke noted that at the current pace of hostilities, Kostiantynivka is likely to fall under Russian control by the end of the year. He also suggested that Lyman could become a “gray zone.”
At the same time, the expert emphasized that Russian frontline units are currently located approximately 11–12 kilometers east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. In his view, Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics could slow the occupiers’ advance, so by the end of the year they may remain about 5–6 kilometers from these cities.
Röpke also noted that his assessment is a forecast based on an analysis of the current situation on the front lines and the pace of the Russian troops’ advance.
Röpke made these remarks in an interview with the “Nastoyashchee Vremya” television channel.
As a reminder, Russian troops attacked 54 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region over the past 24 hours, launching 979 strikes. Three people were killed as a result of the enemy shelling, and another 24 residents were wounded.
The Russians struck a residential building in the Kyiv region, injuring five people.
In the Kherson region, one person was killed and 11 others were injured as a result of Russian strikes.
In the Donetsk region, Russian shelling damaged the office of the Ukrainian Red Cross.
