Russia may have nearly depleted its stockpile of Oreshnik missiles, according to ISW
Russia has likely significantly reduced its stockpile of “Oreshnik” missiles and may have only one operational unit remaining.
According to researchers, after the first use of an “Oreshnik” missile against Dnipro in November 2024, Vladimir Putin allegedly ordered the accelerated production of four more such missiles.
According to the data provided, Russia has since deployed three of the four missiles manufactured in 2026:
- one was launched at the Lviv region on January 9
- two more were used during attacks on the Bila Tserkva area in the Kyiv region
- one missile reportedly missed its target and fell in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region on May 24
Dallas Analytics speculates that following these launches, Russia may have only one operational missile of this type remaining from the initial batch.
The report also notes that Russian defense contractors may have violated quality control procedures to meet the Kremlin’s demands for accelerated production.
In addition, analysts cite procurement documents from March 2025 that point to problems with the Soviet GU-503 aviation gyroscope, which could have affected the missile’s guidance system.
As a result, experts estimate that the “Oreshnik” could deviate from its target by tens of kilometers.
ISW analysts emphasize that even with limited stockpiles, Russia will likely continue its attempts to produce “Oreshnik” missiles, despite technical and logistical difficulties.
This is reported in a study by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing data from the Ukrainian analytical firm Dallas Analytics.
Russia’s threats to launch another “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile at Ukraine have a clear political and propaganda basis. The Kremlin is attempting to demonstrate its strength following a series of image-damaging setbacks and military failures.
Ukraine currently lacks the technical capabilities to independently track the flight of Russia’s “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile. At the same time, the Ukrainian military receives advance information about preparations for such strikes thanks to Western partners and intelligence operations.
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