Russia has already reached its projected budget deficit for 2026
According to the results of the first three months of 2026, the Russian federal budget deficit reached a critical level of 4.6 trillion rubles (approximately $51.1 billion).
This was reported by the SZRU.
This figure has already significantly exceeded the annual target, which the Russian government had set at 3.8 trillion rubles (about $42.2 billion).
The financial crisis is forcing the Kremlin to abandon even basic social protection measures in order to fill the coffers. One of the most telling examples was the blocking of an initiative to restrict gambling.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU) notes: “One of the most telling episodes is the postponement of a ban on betting at bookmakers for incapacitated persons, minors, and debtors. It would seem a basic social protection measure. But the Ministry of Finance openly admitted: its implementation threatens a loss of up to 27 billion rubles ($300 million) in tax revenue and another 14 billion ($155.5 million) in earmarked funds for sports.”
To stabilize the situation, the Russian dictator ordered the urgent introduction of the so-called “windfall tax.” This is a special tax on the excess profits of large enterprises, intended to serve as a lifeline for the depleted budget.
According to Bloomberg, the rate of this levy for 2025 is planned to be set at 20%.
For comparison, a similar mechanism during the 2021–2023 period allowed 318.8 billion rubles (nearly $3.54 billion) to be raised for the Russian Federation’s budget.
In parallel with the search for new sources of revenue, the Kremlin is tightening financial oversight of its own population. Tax authorities will gain unprecedented automatic access to individuals’ banking data.
The new rules will apply to citizens whose annual income exceeds 2.4 million rubles ($26,600). The report emphasizes that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is now required to “identify any anomalies.”
The SZRU concludes: “Where the line between tax administration and total surveillance lies is a rhetorical question.”
The Central Bank of Russia attributed the economic downturn to bad weather
After three years of unexpected economic growth, Russia is facing a sudden slowdown—war costs, inflation, and falling oil prices have begun to weigh on an economy that until recently seemed resilient to sanctions.
Lending to householdsin Russia has fallen to a six-year low.
