One-week moratorium on strikes could benefit Russia — ISW
A one-week moratorium on long-range strikes by Russia against Ukraine, announced by US President Donald Trump, could prove advantageous to the Kremlin if it is implemented on a bilateral basis.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that such a pause would give Russia time to accumulate strike capabilities and prepare larger-scale attacks.
ISW explains that a temporary halt to mutual long-range strikes would allow Russian forces to replenish their stocks of drones and missiles. Russia could then use these accumulated resources for major combined attacks in the future, while Ukraine would be forced during the moratorium to reduce or suspend strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
According to analysts, this asymmetry creates the risk that a short pause could turn into a tool for preparing a new wave of attacks by the aggressor.
ISW also recalls that the Kremlin has previously used short-term “ceasefires” as an element of information and psychological pressure. This refers to attempts to demonstrate a supposed “readiness for negotiations” without making real concessions, while simultaneously rejecting proposals for longer-term or permanent cessations of strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Such tactics allow Russia to buy time and shape a favourable political narrative without changing the essence of its military strategy.
During talks in Abu Dhabi, Ukraine discussed the possibility of an energy ceasefire with the United States and Russia.
In addition, reports circulated this morning in Russian and Ukrainian military channels claiming that negotiators from Moscow and Kyiv in Abu Dhabi had allegedly agreed on a temporary suspension of strikes on critical infrastructure until 3 February.
