In May, Russia may seize the least amount of territory in Ukraine since March 2024
In May, Russia may capture the smallest amount of Ukrainian territory since March 2024
According to the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, as of May 24, Russian troops had occupied only 35 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. If the current pace continues, this will be the smallest figure since March 2024.
At that time, Russia captured 33 square kilometers in a month—it was also the last month when the Russian army’s advance did not exceed 100 square kilometers. By the fall of 2024, the pace of the offensive had reached 729 square kilometers per month.
During the week of May 18–24, Russian troops advanced 12 square kilometers. A week earlier, Russia lost 2 square kilometers of territory.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured the village of Dobropasove in the Dnipropetrovsk region, but analysts do not confirm this. According to DeepState, the village is located approximately 15 km from territories controlled by Russia.
Analysts from the Conflict Intelligence Team note that the pace of the Russian offensive did not increase by the end of May. If the situation does not change by the end of June, this could indicate a decline in the Russian army’s offensive capabilities.
Amid the slowdown in the offensive, Russia is intensifying its airstrikes. Over the weekend, Russia launched a massive strike on Kyiv and the surrounding region, while the Russian Foreign Ministry threatened strikes on “decision-making centers.”
Zelenskyy stated that the situation on the front has stabilized.
Strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Russian invaders’ logistics are hampering supplies to the front.
The Security Service of Ukraine struck one of Russia’s key chemical industry enterprises, “Metafrax Chemicals,” which was operating for the Russian military’s needs; production processes at the facility were halted following the strike.
Ukrainian defense forces have intensified strikes on Russian logistics in the occupied territories, which is already forcing the occupying authorities to restrict traffic on key routes.
