The Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on Russian territory are forcing the Kremlin to respond and are increasing pressure on the economy
Strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on military and industrial targets within Russia are the most effective way to make the Russian government and society feel the consequences of the war.
Attacks on military and industrial infrastructure primarily affect Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and are gradually shifting public sentiment in Russia.
“When the Ukrainian Armed Forces began striking Russian factories and infrastructure in earnest last year, most Russian experts believed it was ‘like shooting an elephant with a pellet gun.’ But reality has shown that this is the only way to bring the Russians to their senses and force the system to react,” Inozemtsev said.
The economist noted that following the partial mobilization of 2022, the Kremlin tried to minimize the war’s impact on Russians’ daily lives by avoiding a new wave of conscription and creating the illusion of stability.
However, according to him, the situation has changed.
“First, Putin lost his nerve and began to dance entirely to the tune of his military. Last year, the government’s economic team convinced him that military spending did not need to be increased—and in the fall, the 2026 budget was adopted, which called for cuts in military spending,” Inozemtsev noted.
At the same time, he said, Russia’s military spending is rising by about 30% this year, despite earlier plans to cut it.
Inozemtsev believes that the increase in military spending is accompanied by a heavier tax burden, business audits, asset confiscations, and pressure on entrepreneurs.
“In essence, Putin is killing the Russian economy. The impact of Western sanctions has been compounded by the impact of his own madness. Today, this is far more dangerous for the Russian economy than any external factors,” the economist emphasized.
According to Inozemtsev’s assessment, the war is being felt more and more acutely within Russia itself, and the country’s economy is heading toward a recession.
“Second, the war has truly reached Russian territory. Russia’s economy is currently on the path to recession; your strikes will accelerate it, but they won’t lead to a catastrophic crisis. This is not comparable to 1998 or 2009. But the stagnation will continue and develop into a slight economic decline—1–2% per year,” concluded Vladislav Inozemtsev.
This opinion was expressed by Russian economist and opposition figure Vladislav Inozemtsev in an interview with “Glavkom.”
Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s key energy infrastructure are increasingly disrupting fuel supplies and military logistics, bringing the country closer to a large-scale fuel crisis.
The economic situation in Russia is being exacerbated by the depletion of financial reserves. According to Janis Klug, an analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, following a significant increase in the first half of 2026, military and intelligence spending now accounts for nearly half of all government expenditures. At the same time, the liquid assets of Russia’s National Welfare Fund have fallen from 7% of GDP at the beginning of 2022 to just 1.7% of GDP as of April, which indicates that the Kremlin’s financial resources—not just its fuel reserves—are running dry, writes Politico.
As a result of a massive Russian strike on the capital, a leased humanitarian warehouse belonging to the Ukrainian Red Cross was completely destroyed; it had stored over 320,000 units of cargo and equipment with a total value of more than 79 million hryvnias.
As a result of Russian shelling and a fire at one of the capital’s enterprises, fuel and lubricants flowed into Kyrylivskyi Lake in Kyiv through the storm sewer system.
