WSJ: Russia is stepping up pressure on Lukashenko to open a second front
Since the beginning of the year, Russia has been stepping up political and military pressure on Belarus, seeking to use its territory to expand the war against Ukraine and conduct hybrid operations against NATO countries, according to The Wall Street Journal.
According to American and European diplomats and intelligence officials, Moscow has specific goals. Belarusian territory is needed for regular drone launches against Ukrainian targets, to extend the front line toward Ukraine’s western regions, and to draw Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves away from critical areas in the east.
In addition, the Kremlin views Belarus as a springboard for provocations against neighboring NATO member states. Moscow wants to test the Alliance’s response and undermine Western support for Ukraine. Last summer, Russian drones already entered Polish airspace—now such operations could become systematic, the publication notes.
The reason is the slowdown in the Russian offensive in Donbas. Putin needs new flashpoints, and Belarus is the most convenient option.
The main tool of influence is financial. Former intelligence officials confirm that Lukashenko’s regime is critically dependent on Russian subsidies, and the Kremlin is using this leverage. Most of the negotiations with the Belarusian leadership are being conducted by Russia’s ambassador to Minsk, Boris Gryzlov—he is in direct contact with Lukashenko. Moscow’s main argument is the complete cessation of financial aid in the event of refusal.
Lukashenko finds himself caught between a rock and a hard place. Being drawn into the war threatens the collapse of his regime—most Belarusians do not want to fight, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have significantly more combat experience. But he cannot refuse Putin either: his power depends on Moscow’s support.
At the same time, Ukraine is also stepping up pressure on Minsk. Zelenskyy gave Lukashenko a week to remove the relay stations for Russian “suicide” drones from Belarusian territory. “Otherwise, we will remove them ourselves,” the president warned.
In addition, Kyiv is demanding that Minsk stop supplying fuel to support Russia. According to Kyiv, in the first five months of this year, gasoline shipments from Belarus to Russia increased 13-fold, and diesel fuel shipments tripled compared to last year, the publication reports.
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