Putin’s claims of success in Ukraine do not reflect the actual situation on the front lines, according to the ISW
Vladimir Putin’s statements regarding the course of hostilities in Ukraine at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) contradict the available facts and indicate a distorted assessment of the situation by the Russian leadership.
Analysts note that Putin’s statements about Russia’s “inevitable victory” do not align with the actual situation on the battlefield.
According to the ISW, this may indicate that the Russian military command is providing the Kremlin with inaccurate or distorted information about the course of hostilities.
During his speeches at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 4–5, Putin claimed significant “successes” by the Russian army, including:
- the alleged capture of “2,440 square kilometers” of territory;
- control over 85% of the Donetsk region, 80% of the Zaporizhzhia region, and the entire Luhansk region;
- an alleged advance by Russian troops “on all fronts.”
ISW notes that the cited area figure is mathematically incorrect, as it exceeds the total territory of Ukraine. Analysts suggest that Putin meant 2,440 square kilometers.
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War emphasize that the actual situation differs significantly from the statements of the Russian leadership.
In particular, the pace of the Russian offensive in 2026 has slowed significantly, and Ukrainian forces are carrying out successful counterattacks in certain areas. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have intensified medium- and long-range strikes against Russian logistics, and Ukrainian units have managed to liberate more territory than Russia captured in April–May.
ISW emphasizes that Russia is not demonstrating the expected pace of advance, while the Ukrainian side is holding its ground and, in some places, regaining the tactical initiative.
“ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command’s constant exaggerations have likely given Putin a false impression of the situation on the battlefield,” the report notes.
Analysts add that current trends indicate a decline in Russia’s combat capabilities and an increase in the effectiveness of Ukrainian operations.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the destruction of the Russian Baltic Fleet’s Kronstadt naval base, located near St. Petersburg.
In St. Petersburg, Russia, smoke was reported in the Lomonosov area, where the Research Institute of Marine Thermal Engineering is located—one of Russia’s key enterprises in the development of underwater weapons for the navy.
A major fire broke out in Tyumen, Russia, at the Antipinsky Oil Refinery—the largest private refinery in the Russian Federation. According to eyewitness reports, a series of explosions was heard at the facility before the fire started.
On the night of June 6, Russia again came under a massive drone attack. In the Krasnodar region, a fire broke out at an oil depot following explosions, and in the temporarily occupied city of Mariupol, there are reports of a strike on the port area.
On the night of June 5, attack drones struck a number of targets in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. In Luhansk, a massive fire broke out at an oil depot following the attack; explosions and strikes were also reported in the Donetsk, Vuhlehirsk, and Mariupol areas.
On June 3 and during the night of June 4, Ukrainian defense forces struck a number of key military targets belonging to the Russian aggressor.
