Stanford researcher urges preparation for Taiwan crisis — Taipei Times
Ike Freiman, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, called at a symposium in Taipei for Taiwan and the United States to prepare for a possible crisis due to China’s intensifying gray-zone pressure, rather than focusing solely on deterring a full-scale conflict. In his view, Taiwan’s future may be determined by a crisis rather than a war, Taipei Times reports.
Freiman said Taiwan and the United States need a joint doctrine or concept of operations to deter crisis scenarios. He described gray-zone pressure as coercive actions that do not escalate into armed conflict but may gradually alter the status quo around Taiwan and confront Washington with a decision on possible escalation.
Risk of legal encirclement
The researcher drew attention to Chinese Coast Guard operations in which Chinese vessels contact commercial ships entering or leaving Taiwan and request cargo information. Freiman assessed that such actions could develop into “legal encirclement,” under which Beijing would seek to establish the principle that cargo could enter or leave Taiwan only with the PRC’s permission.
He suggested that if shipping companies comply with such demands and international insurers refuse to insure cargo without adherence to PRC directives, China could effectively control the maritime space around Taiwan without firing a single shot.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
In June, Beijing launched a so-called special maritime law-enforcement operation in an area east of Taiwan. Chinese vessels asked commercial ships about their routes and claimed jurisdiction over those waters. China also continued Coast Guard patrols and conducted seabed research there from August 10 to 31. Taiwan rejected China’s jurisdictional claims.
Chips and financial risks
Freiman also emphasized Taiwan’s strategic role for the United States because of artificial intelligence development and global dependence on Taiwan’s advanced semiconductors. According to him, Taiwan produces about 90% of the world’s most advanced chips, and even expectations of disruptions to their supply could trigger a sharp decline in the shares of major U.S. technology companies and global financial consequences.
In the researcher’s view, it is not advantageous for China to directly halt exports of Taiwanese semiconductors, as it would then be considered responsible for the economic shock. Instead, gradually tightening control over shipping could, in his assessment, confront the U.S. president with a choice: allow Beijing to gain ever-greater control over Taiwan or take action that could disrupt chip supplies and cause a financial shock.
Among possible steps, Freiman named Taiwan adjusting the volume of its advanced semiconductor exports depending on the nature of China’s gray-zone actions. He also proposed regularly publishing data on maritime activity around Taiwan, including open-source satellite intelligence, on a platform trusted by international financial markets. In his view, shipping companies could also publicly disclose information on compliance with Chinese directives before a crisis arises.
