Expert: Taiwan’s defense efforts send a stronger signal to the US than to Beijing
In Taiwan, defense preparations may send a stronger signal to the United States than to Beijing, Stanford University researcher Oriana Skylar Mastro said during the Taipei Security Dialogue. As Taipei Times reports, she urged Taipei to adapt its deterrence strategy for different audiences.
Mastro positively assessed Taiwan’s increased defense spending, its emphasis on asymmetric capabilities, and preparations of society for a possible conflict. At the same time, she questioned exactly whom these steps influence.
A signal for Washington
According to the researcher, in conversations with Chinese senior officials and analysts, she heard that strengthening Taiwan’s capabilities is not a key focus for Beijing. In her view, Taiwan’s defense efforts help strengthen deterrence, but their primary audience is the United States.
Taipei, in particular, demonstrates to Washington its readiness to defend itself and develops the capability to defend itself without external intervention. Mastro called such a strategy appropriate because it assures the United States of Taiwan’s determination to defend itself. At the same time, she said Taipei needs a separate approach so that new capabilities also affect Beijing’s calculations. She stated that Taiwan will not be able to defend itself without direct US military intervention.
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Arms sales and infrastructure resilience
Chen Ping-kuei, a professor in the Department of Diplomacy at National Chengchi University, agreed that Taiwan has already sent an effective signal to the United States but has not formed an equally convincing deterrent signal for Beijing. He called US arms sales to Taiwan important evidence of Washington’s commitments, noting that the political significance of such decisions may outweigh the size of individual packages.
Chen also warned that Washington discussing proposed arms sales packages for Taiwan with Beijing would be a very negative signal for Taipei. He commented on concerns that arose after US President Donald Trump confirmed talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping about arms sales to Taiwan during their meeting in Beijing in mid-May.
Wolfgang Müller, a senior research fellow at the German Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies, stressed that Taiwan must also prepare to remain functional in the event of Chinese attempts to isolate it. According to him, this does not necessarily require a formal blockade: increased risks could change the behavior of shipping companies, insurers, suppliers, and maintenance service providers. Müller advised assessing how long critical services would operate without external supplies, identifying infrastructure bottlenecks, and stockpiling transformers, medicines, chemicals, communications equipment, and machine parts in advance.
