Japan considers increasing defense spending to 3.5% of GDP
Japan is considering setting a medium-term target for defense spending at 3.5% of gross domestic product. A new five-year defense spending plan, according to the Taipei Times, is expected at the end of the year.
Informed sources told the publication that Japanese defense officials had already signaled to their US counterparts their readiness to substantially increase spending. One scenario envisages using South Korea’s commitment to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP over 10 years as a benchmark. At the same time, according to one source, Tokyo may choose a lower target, including 3% of GDP.
Pressure from the United States
The administration of US President Donald Trump is pressuring Japan, as well as other Washington allies, to strengthen their own defenses and rely less on the US military. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has already accelerated the increase in defense spending to nearly 2% of GDP in the fiscal year that ended in March, two years ahead of schedule.
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Until 2022, Japan had an informal limit on defense spending of around 1% of GDP. US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby said last month that Washington expects Japan to take more active steps on defense spending. At the same time, US officials have largely avoided publicly pressuring Tokyo to make a formal commitment to the 3.5% of GDP target.
Potential expenditure
Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has publicly stated that the level of spending should be determined by military needs rather than monetary indicators. In April, he said that defense and related expenditures in the current fiscal year amounted to 10.6 trillion yen, or $68.48 billion, equivalent to 1.9% of nominal GDP in 2022.
According to the Cabinet Office’s forecast for nominal GDP in this fiscal year, this level of spending would amount to 1.5% of GDP. A budget at the 3.5% level under this calculation would reach 24 trillion yen, more than twice the current amount. Robert Ward, head of Japan studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that Japanese politicians and bureaucrats have already laid the groundwork for a significant increase in defense spending.
