Argentina’s Merval index falls 9% in dollar terms since the start of the year — Buenos Aires Times
In Argentina, the benchmark S&P Merval stock index has fallen by 9% in dollar terms since the start of 2026. At the same time, significant gains in the local market are being posted mainly by companies involved in oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta shale region, Buenos Aires Times reports.
Shares of banks, construction companies and consumer-oriented businesses have mostly declined since the start of the year. According to Martín Polo, director of consulting firm Polomics, without the energy sector, the S&P Merval looks weak and lacks the same compelling growth drivers it had last year.
Oil companies increase production
The rise in energy shares has been accompanied by improved financial results for companies. Shale production by state-owned YPF increased by nearly 50% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year. Vista Energy and Pampa Energía also reported higher production and improved financial results.
Ricardo Jiménez, a portfolio manager at Bull Market Brokers, linked the performance of energy stocks both to oil prices and to the sector’s own results. According to him, Vaca Muerta companies are increasing output, delivering strong results, and some of them have begun generating positive cash flow.
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After the victory of President Javier Milei’s party in the 2025 midterm parliamentary elections, YPF shares nearly tripled, while Vista shares more than doubled. At the same time, the S&P Merval in dollar terms rose about half as much as shares of the leading oil-producing companies.
Weak activity outside energy
The gap in the stock market reflects the situation in the economy: in July, economic activity declined by 1.4% year-on-year and by 2.9% compared with June on a seasonally adjusted basis. Manufacturing was among the weakest sectors, while the extractive industry continued to grow.
Banks are suffering from an increase in overdue debt and slow lending growth, while construction companies depend on a recovery in economic activity. The only major Argentine company outside the energy sector whose shares rose this year was Telecom Argentina: its stock gained 5% amid merger and acquisition deals.
From January through July, Argentina accumulated a trade surplus of more than $16 billion thanks to export growth. At the same time, slowing domestic activity is restraining imports, while the strengthening peso makes imported goods cheaper but weakens demand for locally produced goods and raises producers’ dollar-denominated costs.
