Chinese researcher warns of risk of Indian miscalculations regarding China
Indian intelligence agencies may increasingly perceive China’s routine activities as threats, raising the risk of misjudgments and unilateral countermeasures by New Delhi against Beijing. This was reported by the South China Morning Post, citing an article by Zhao Ruoxi, a researcher at the Macau University of Science and Technology.
Increased intelligence activity
In a study on Indian intelligence operations focused on China in 2020–2026, Zhao noted that India stepped up intelligence gathering amid deteriorating bilateral relations. The article was published on July 31 in the Chinese-language Journal of Intelligence, issued by the Shaanxi Institute of Scientific and Technical Information.
According to the researcher’s assessment, after the 2020 border clash, India has paid greater attention to China’s political and economic presence in South Asia, Beijing’s focus on emerging technologies, and the activities of Chinese naval forces in the Indian Ocean. Twenty Indian and four Chinese servicemen were killed in the clash in the Galwan Valley.
Zhao argues that India has expanded its intelligence tools, using space-based intelligence, drone surveillance and cyber intelligence to create an interagency network focused on China.
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Cooperation with partners and the risk of errors
In Zhao’s view, India cooperated with the United States and Middle Eastern countries to monitor long-range maritime operations by the Chinese navy and exert information pressure on China’s sea routes for energy supplies. She called India’s significant reliance on foreign data a “structural weakness” which, in her assessment, makes conclusions about China vulnerable to the strategic interests of third parties.
The researcher noted that relations between Beijing and New Delhi began improving at the end of 2024, but intensified Indian intelligence operations concerning China continued. She expects further expansion of technical surveillance at the border, which, according to her forecast, will force China to strengthen information protection.
Zhao also believes that Beijing’s diplomatic initiatives in South Asia, including projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, may face systematic obstruction from New Delhi. In her view, increased Indian intelligence activity raises the likelihood that China’s routine actions will be interpreted as threats, which could trigger unilateral countermeasures by India.
