IMF raises Pakistan inflation forecast to 9.9% — The Express Tribune

In Pakistan, the International Monetary Fund has raised its inflation forecast for the 2026–2027 fiscal year to 9.9%, compared with its previous estimate of 8.4%. At the same time, the fund left its forecast for Pakistani economic growth unchanged at 3.5%. This is stated in the new World Economic Outlook report, The Express Tribune reports.

Forecast exceeds government target

The IMF's new forecast exceeds Pakistan's official inflation target, set at 8.2%. In April, the fund projected inflation at 8.4% and maintained that estimate in its July report.

The IMF did not provide separate reasons for revising the forecast specifically for Pakistan. At the same time, the fund raised inflation forecasts for the Middle East and Central Asia region because of a conflict that affected energy supplies and prices. The report also notes that global headline inflation rose in August after energy prices recovered.

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Differences in growth estimates

During recent consultations with the IMF, Pakistani authorities sought to convince the fund that the country's economy would grow by 4% in this fiscal year. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Reuters that he expects growth of more than 4%.

The IMF also revised its forecast for Pakistan's current account deficit to 1% of GDP, or about $4.4 billion. This is approximately $450 million more than the fund's previous estimate.

In its global forecast, the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.1% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027. Global inflation, according to the fund's estimate, will stand at 4.7% in 2026 and decline to 4.1% in 2027.