An advance from Belarus will be a trap for the enemy
Should the enemy attempt a new offensive from Belarusian territory, it will face a strong defense and challenging terrain, which would significantly hinder any advance. Ukrainian analysts and military officials assert that a repeat of the 2022 scenario is no longer possible. The threat from the north remains, but its actual capabilities are significantly limited.
Any attempt at an offensive or large-scale provocations from Belarusian territory is unlikely to succeed, as Ukrainian defenses in the northern sector have been significantly reinforced, and the terrain and fortifications pose serious obstacles to any breakthrough. The Defense Forces and military analysts emphasize that the situation is radically different from the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
This assessment was voiced by Roman Pogorily, co-founder of the DeepState analytical project, on “Ukrainian Radio,” while commenting on potential risks from the northern direction and the readiness of Ukrainian units.
According to him, the current state of defense along the border is significantly more effective than it was previously, and Russian troops lack both the sufficient resources and the capabilities to repeat a large-scale offensive. “We shouldn’t exaggerate or overestimate their capabilities, because the terrain in Ukraine has been thoroughly dug up there. The geography there isn’t ideal for an advance either,” Pogorily noted, highlighting the challenging terrain and the fortifications in the area.
Separately, he noted that Belarus remains effectively involved in the war, as it has provided its territory for Russian aggression, but this does not imply an automatic capacity for a new large-scale offensive.
The analyst also emphasized that on the northern border, there remains a risk of minor provocations, the activities of sabotage and reconnaissance groups, or attempts to create local buffer zones; however, in his assessment, a strategic breakthrough is not to be expected. “Ukrainian units deployed along the northern border are fully prepared for any turn of events. For the attackers, this will be a one-way trip,” he added.
In conclusion, DeepState emphasizes that the northern sector remains under constant surveillance, and any attempts at escalation by the enemy will face Ukraine’s organized and prepared defense.
Belarus has reported alleged numerous attempts to damage border infrastructure using drones from Ukraine. This was stated by Alexander Volfovich, State Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council, during a meeting of the CSTO Committee of Security Council Secretaries in Moscow.
Belarus reported 116 attempted attacks from Ukraine over the course of a week.
Earlier, on March 26, the U.S. lifted sanctions against the Belarusian Ministry of Finance, the Development Bank, and the company “Belaruskali,” as well as a number of related entities.
Recall that Lukashenkoannounced a “major deal” with the U.S. at Trump’s suggestion.
