The UN considers a rise in temperatures due to the return of El Niño to be inevitable

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an official warning urging the global community to prepare for the imminent return of the large-scale climate phenomenon known as El Niño. According to meteorologists, the probability of this natural phenomenon—which traditionally causes a sharp rise in global temperatures and triggers abnormal weather events—occurring is 80% by September and will reach 90% by November of this year. 

In the next three months, unusually hot weather is expected in virtually every corner of the planet, accompanied by a significant risk of extreme downpours or prolonged droughts. 

The previous El Niño cycle, observed in 2023–2024, ranked among the five strongest in the history of scientific observations and was the reason why 2024 broke absolutely all previous temperature records on Earth. Despite the uniqueness of each individual event, scientists traditionally link the development of El Niño to a catastrophic increase in precipitation in the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, the southern United States, and certain regions of South America. In contrast, severe drought conditions, massive wildfires, and water shortages typically threaten Australia, Indonesia, Central America, the Caribbean, and South Asia.

This climatic phenomenon occurs every few years and lasts from 9 to 12 months. During its intensification, the trade winds—which typically push warm water masses toward the western Pacific—weaken or completely change direction. As a result, the surface water layers in the central and eastern parts of the ocean heat up significantly, which stimulates the formation of destructive hurricanes there, while simultaneously suppressing their occurrence in the Atlantic basin. The latest WMO monitoring data for April–May indicate that sea surface temperatures in key regions of the Pacific Ocean have already come very close to El Niño threshold values due to abnormal warmth in the water column, and atmospheric processes fully align with the model of its rapid development.

Although some groups of scientists have already suggested that the current wave could become the most powerful “super El Niño” of this century, the World Meteorological Organization is currently urging caution in assessments. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that forecasters are currently facing significant uncertainty due to substantial discrepancies in forecast models. Some computer simulations show no signs of the phenomenon reaching extreme intensity, while others paint a different picture; therefore, experts will be able to draw precise conclusions about the future scale of warming at a later date.