PIIE forecasts China’s GDP growth at 4.3% in 2027 — South China Morning Post

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington, United States, forecasts that China’s GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. This is below the 5% figure in 2025. The institute’s new forecast was reported by the South China Morning Post.

Weak domestic demand

In its semiannual Global Economic Prospects report, PIIE analysts cited excess production capacity and a downturn in the real estate market among the factors putting pressure on domestic demand in China. Karen Dynan, a senior fellow at the institute, said she expects a further slowdown in aggregate demand in China.

PIIE’s forecast for the Chinese economy in 2026 is 0.1 percentage points higher than its April estimate of 4.5%. At the same time, the forecast for 2027 remained unchanged. In its spring report, the institute emphasized China’s strong exports, whereas it now expects the export boom to fade due to tighter trade restrictions.

More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.

China’s economic dynamics and the global forecast

According to the data cited in the article, China’s economy grew by 5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, but growth slowed to 4.3% in the second quarter. This was the slowest quarterly growth since the end of 2022.

PIIE also forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, despite the war with Iran and uncertainty over energy prices. The report notes that China benefited from exports of goods linked to the global development of artificial intelligence. Chinese authorities have set an economic growth target for 2026 of between 4.5% and 5%.