Polymarket puts Yashar’s chances above Likud’s in Israel — Jerusalem Post
In Israel, the prediction market Polymarket estimates the chances of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party winning the most seats in the Knesset at about 62%. For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, this figure stands at about 39%, The Jerusalem Post reports.
A shift in estimates over several weeks
About a month ago, the figures were the opposite: Polymarket estimated Likud’s chances of winning the most seats at 59%, and Yashar’s at 41%. Since then, an advantage of nearly 20 percentage points in favor of Netanyahu’s party has turned into an advantage of more than 20 points for Eisenkot’s party.
Trading volume in the market on the party or electoral list that will receive the most seats in the Knesset exceeded $300,000. At the time of publication, total trading volume stood at more than $301,000.
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A separate market on the prime minister’s post
Under Polymarket’s rules, the outcome of this market will be determined by the number of seats won by a party or electoral list, rather than by which candidate ultimately forms a coalition and becomes prime minister. Therefore, the largest number of seats alone does not determine the future head of government.
In a separate market on who will take office as prime minister after the election, Eisenkot’s chances are estimated at 52–53%, while Netanyahu’s are about 29%. Polymarket figures are not poll results: they are prediction-market contract prices that can change rapidly depending on trading activity.
