President Milei denies recession in Argentina — MercoPress

Argentine President Javier Milei said that the country is not in a recession, despite data showing a decline in economic activity, rising poverty and unemployment. In an interview with the La Cornisa program on the LN+ television channel, he described the published indicators as ones that “show anything.” MercoPress reports this.

According to Milei, this is not a recession but a slowdown in the pace of economic growth. He stressed that, technically, a recession is considered to be two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, and criticized seasonally adjusted statistical indicators. Economists quoted by the publication noted that such adjustments are used to eliminate annually recurring factors, including holidays, harvests or festivals.

Economic and poverty statistics

Last week, Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census reported that economic activity in July fell by 2.9% compared with June, the largest monthly decline in six years. Year on year, the indicator decreased by 1.4%.

The poverty rate in the first half of the year was 32.3%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous half-year. Unemployment reached 7.9%, the highest level during the current administration. Milei called the poverty data outdated because they cover the first half of the year, while he explained the increase in unemployment by a reallocation of resources and a growing number of people seeking work.

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The president also reported record levels of private consumption, exports and production. He claims that his administration has created more than 500,000 jobs and that Argentina will have four consecutive years of economic growth. Milei does not plan to change the economic program.

Market reaction and the president’s statements

At the same time, the country risk, which had fallen to 402 points in July, exceeded 640 basis points on Monday, its highest level since the beginning of the year. JP Morgan cut its 2026 growth forecast for Argentina’s economy from 2.7% to 1.5% and expects the economy to contract by 4% year on year in the third quarter.

In the same interview, Milei linked the economic difficulties to opposition initiatives in Congress and security issues. He said there had been 40 attempts to undermine the fiscal balance and seven impeachment attempts, which he called coup attempts. The president also claimed that authorities deported 10,000 “terrorists” in 2025 and another 20,000 since the beginning of 2026. However, published official statistics do not confirm these figures: according to data from the security and migration ministries cited by La Nación, fewer than 1,700 people faced obstacles to entering the country.

Deputy Maximiliano Ferraro of the Civic Coalition party submitted an official request demanding that the executive branch specify the number of people expelled and the number of cases related to terrorism. Deputy Máximo Kirchner of Union for the Homeland called the figure voiced by the president a significant exaggeration.