Saarts Assesses Risks for Estonia's Reform Party — ERR News
In Estonia, political scientist Tõnis Saarts believes that Defense Minister Martin Herem could significantly affect the position of the Reform Party ahead of the next parliamentary elections. As ERR News reports, in the author's view, Herem's work could either help the party restore trust in defense matters or further weaken its reputation.
Defense as a political advantage
Saarts called defense policy the last area in which the Reform Party retained an image of competence convincing to voters. He noted that the party's reputation in economic policy had, in his assessment, weakened due to years of economic stagnation, tax increases and budget problems.
Before the 2023 elections, the Reform Party, according to the political scientist's assessment, convinced voters of its competence in the economy, social policy and countering the Russian threat. At the same time, Saarts does not consider the protection of the welfare state, including pensions, family policy, healthcare and education, to be the party's natural ideological pillar.
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In the author's view, a scandal at the end of Hanno Pevkur's term as defense minister shook trust in the Reform Party in the defense sphere as well. Saarts believes that a new scandal could finally destroy this reputational advantage.
Possible scenarios
The political scientist outlined three possible developments. Under the first, Herem, by setting about correcting the situation, may uncover longstanding problems in management, information exchange and defense procurement. Under the second, the Reform Party may try to place part of the responsibility on Herem himself, who during this period was commander of the Estonian Defense Forces. Saarts is convinced that a public exchange of accusations will undermine trust in both the party and the minister.
The third scenario envisages Herem resolving the problems, while the Reform Party could politically benefit from the result by acknowledging mistakes and stating that it had brought in a specialist. Saarts stressed that over the next six months, Herem may influence not only the management of Estonia's defense, but also the reputation with which the Reform Party enters the election campaign.
