Global sugar prices could rise sharply — analysts have revised their forecast
Analysts have revised their expectations for the global sugar market and now forecast a deficit for the 2026–2027 season instead of the previously expected surplus. According to Covrig Analytics, the global balance has shifted from a 100,000-metric-ton surplus to a 300,000-metric-ton deficit due to risks to harvests in leading producing countries.
Global sugar prices rose sharply on Monday. In New York, they reached their highest level in three weeks, and in London, their highest in two weeks.
This was due to analysts revising their forecast for the global sugar market downward. Covrig Analytics now expects a global sugar shortage of 300,000 metric tons for the 2026–2027 season. Back in June, the company had forecast a surplus of 100,000 metric tons.
Other analytical firms have also revised their estimates. Green Pool raised its deficit forecast to 3.3 million metric tons from 1.76 million metric tons, while StoneX raised its forecast to 1.7 million metric tons from 550,000 metric tons.
Concerns about the harvest in India are providing additional support to prices. The country’s meteorological service forecasts that rainfall in August and September will be below normal, and this year’s monsoon season could be the weakest in the last 11 years.
At the same time, the rainfall situation has improved somewhat. As of August 3, the deficit stood at 12% of normal, whereas at the end of June it had reached 42%.
Another factor that could affect the global market is the El Niño weather phenomenon. It has the potential to cause droughts in Brazil, India, and Thailand—the largest sugar producers. If harvests in these countries decline, the supply of sugar on the global market will also decrease.
In addition, prices are influenced by the situation in Brazil. Due to high global oil prices, local producers are increasingly diverting sugarcane to ethanol production rather than sugar, which also reduces its supply on the market.
This is reported with reference to Barchart.
Current vegetable prices in Ukraine as of August 5.
As of August 5, prices for most fruits and berries in Ukraine remain stable. At the same time, strawberries, cherries, and blueberries remain among the most expensive seasonal berries, according to data from the “Stolichny” market in Kyiv.
As a reminder, most Ukrainian fruit growers expect wholesale prices for apples to decline in the second half of the 2026/2027 season. The reasons cited include an increase in harvest volume, higher logistics costs, and rising production in other countries.
