Mysterious traders bet $950 million on falling oil prices ahead of the U.S.-Iran truce

Unidentified investors placed a large bet on falling oil prices shortly before the announcement of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

This was reported by Reuters.

A few hours before the ceasefire announcement, 8,600 Brent and WTI oil futures contracts worth approximately $950 million were sold.

After the ceasefire was announced, oil prices plummeted—by about 15%, dropping below $100 per barrel.

Analysts note that such large transactions are not usually conducted all at once to avoid influencing the market. This time, however, sales took place in large blocks, which is unusual.

Specifically, about 6,200 Brent crude contracts and 2,400 WTI contracts were sold, representing roughly 1% of daily trading volume.

Increased activity was also recorded on the prediction platform, where a group of traders earned hundreds of thousands of dollars on bets related to the ceasefire.

According to analysts, these same accounts had previously profited from predictions regarding military events, raising suspicions of possible access to insider information.

Additionally, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon undermine the possibility of further negotiations.

Trump announced U.S. cooperation with Iran regarding nuclear material.

As a reminder, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, during which the parties plan to finalize a definitive agreement.

Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping for two weeks—for the duration of the ceasefire with the U.S. This agreement is part of broader negotiations on de-escalation in the region.

According to anonymous sources, Chinese officials held talks with Iranian representatives to encourage Tehran to cooperate and facilitate a ceasefire with the United States.