Belarus lacks the resources for a full-scale attack on Ukraine — expert
Belarus lacks the forces and resources for a full-scale war against Ukraine, so such a scenario is unlikely. This was stated by military analyst and retired Major Oleksiy Getman. According to him, Minsk is more likely to try to apply pressure in the north, but without the ability to launch a full-scale offensive.
Speaking on "Kyiv 24," he noted that he is skeptical of such prospects. "Belarus lacks the forces and resources to launch any full-scale operations or cross the border. And it is unlikely they would do so toward Ukraine," Getman emphasized.
Thus, he believes that for Belarus, the northern direction is more likely than the southern one. “That’s the Suwałki Gap; it could be Lithuania. They might try to do something there,” the analyst said.
Retaliatory Strikes
Hetman noted that in the event of an attack, the country under attack may strike military and military-industrial facilities on the aggressor state’s territory, as well as target decision-making centers. Furthermore, it may eliminate enemy military personnel and the aggressor country’s supreme commander-in-chief.
"I have serious doubts that Belarus’s air defense is better than Russia’s. Our strikes—we see what we are capable of. Our ‘sanctions’ against the Russian Federation. Sanctions against Belarus would be catastrophic for Belarus. And Lukashenko understands this perfectly well," the military analyst emphasized.
A Zugzwang for Lukashenko
At the same time, says Getman, Russian President Vladimir Putin is “pressuring” on this issue, so it’s a “zugzwang” situation.
"For him (Lukashenko—UNIAN), any decision he has to make is a bad one. If he starts a war against us, we’ll kill him… If he doesn’t, there’s the Polonium, ‘Novichok’ in Russia. Putin won’t forgive him for that. What’s the way out? To stall for time,” he said, adding that sooner or later Lukashenko will still have to make some kind of decision.
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