Kenya raises flood warning level due to El Niño
Kenya has raised the level of flood warnings due to expected heavy rains associated with El Niño. According to an assessment cited in an editorial by Nation Kenya, adverse weather could affect 1.5 million people in 47 counties across the country.
Risks during the rainy season
As the publication notes, experts have already identified areas that could be hit hardest by the bad weather. The highest risks are expected in healthcare, education, agriculture and tourism.
During the rainy season in October, November and December, a strong El Niño could threaten housing, infrastructure, livelihoods and food systems. The World Meteorological Department, cited by Nation Kenya, forecasts that rainfall will exceed normal levels in many areas until February.
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Threat to Nairobi
The Kenya Meteorological Service has named urban, river and flash floods as the main threats. Their scale will depend on the terrain, the condition of drainage systems, and proximity to rivers and other bodies of water.
In Nairobi, heavy downpours could increase pressure on the drainage system and cause significant flooding. According to estimates cited in the article, between 22,000 and 25,000 households could be affected by the bad weather, and up to 100,000 under the worst-case scenario.
The publication notes that the projected consequences may not reach the scale of the El Niño rains of 1997–1998. At the same time, the authorities seek to avoid a repeat of the floods of 2023–2024, which killed 240 people and displaced 790,000 people. The editorial called for strengthening infrastructure, early warning systems and evacuation mechanisms, while urging residents to heed official warnings.
