In South Africa, Setumo Mohapi explained why political ideas need evidence
In South Africa, engineer and business executive Setumo Mohapi wrote in an opinion piece for TimesLIVE that good intentions, a political mandate, popularity, or expert status do not prove the correctness of a problem diagnosis or the effectiveness of a proposed solution. In his view, ideas involving public spending, regulation, taxes, borrowing, or the reorganization of institutions must be supported by evidence, since other people will experience their consequences.
A mandate does not replace testing
The author stressed that winning an election determines who is authorized to govern, but does not turn assumptions into facts. Likewise, a parliamentary majority can approve a programme without proving the theory on which it is based, while academic expertise can reduce ignorance but does not rule out mistakes.
As an example, Mohapi cited a municipality struggling to collect payments. A simple explanation may be that residents do not want to pay, but the problem may also be linked to inaccurate meters, incorrect customer data, a faulty billing system, historical errors in personal accounts, or inadequate service delivery. With such a diagnosis, intensifying enforcement collection alone will not solve the problem.
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Results matter more than activity
Mohapi warned against replacing outcomes with formal activity indicators. In particular, training 10,000 people is the result of an action taken, whereas 10,000 additional people with sustainable incomes is an outcome that requires separate assessment. Similarly, building an industrial site does not guarantee the emergence of viable businesses, investment, and jobs.
The author also noted that a mandate does not create implementation capacity. Delivering policy requires real institutions, staff, systems, budgets, and procurement procedures. In his view, every significant proposal should allow for the possibility of error: clear objectives, deadlines, costs, responsible persons, key assumptions, and criteria by which failure can be determined and the course changed.
The greater the powers an idea seeks to obtain and the more severe the consequences of an error may be, the higher the burden of proof should be, Mohapi concluded.
