Poland’s Civic Coalition leads with 27.2% in new poll — Interia

In Poland, the Civic Coalition took first place in a new United Surveys by IBRiS poll commissioned by Wirtualna Polska: 27.2% of respondents said they were ready to vote for it. This is 2.5 percentage points less than in the survey conducted in mid-October, Interia reports.

Distribution of support

The Law and Justice party came second with 18.2%, with its support rising by 1 percentage point. Confederation ranked third, selected by 13.3% of poll participants, which is 0.1 percentage points more than in the previous survey.

Under these results, Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation, with 11.6% support, and The Left, with 7.1%, would also enter the Sejm. The Rozwój Plus party received 5.2% and is close to the electoral threshold. The Razem party received 3.8%, the Polish People’s Party 2.9%, while no respondent chose Polska 2050. The share of undecided respondents increased by 2.3 percentage points to 10.7%.

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Possible distribution of seats

According to Wirtualna Polska’s calculations using the electoral calculator of Professor Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University, the Civic Coalition could receive 172 seats in the Sejm, while Law and Justice would receive 108. Confederation would have 73 seats, the Confederation of the Polish Crown 61, The Left 30, and Rozwój Plus 16.

Under this scenario, the parties currently forming the governing coalition would not have a majority. As Interia notes, a broad coalition of right-wing forces could secure a stable majority only with the participation of politicians associated with Grzegorz Braun.

The survey was conducted on November 2, 2026, using CATI computer-assisted telephone interviews on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles. The stated margin of error is 3% at a confidence level of 0.95. The study took place shortly after the escalation of the dispute surrounding Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal.