Putin's inner circle is panicking over the Ukrainian military's strikes, but he is not ready for negotiations – Spiegel

In the Moscow circles that keep Vladimir Putin in power, concern is growing over the tactical successes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and their strikes deep into Russian territory. 

According to experts, a segment of the Russian establishment is increasingly acknowledging the impossibility of achieving the initial military objectives, while some members of the inner circle want to suspend hostilities solely to prepare Russia for the next offensive.

Kyiv is attempting to exploit these internal contradictions within the Kremlin by striking at oil infrastructure and exerting psychological pressure on Moscow society; however, there are currently no reliable signs that Moscow is ready for genuine negotiations. From a military standpoint, the situation remains a war of attrition, where Ukraine’s defensive successes do not mean an automatic shift in the initiative or the creation of conditions for a large-scale offensive, for which Kyiv objectively lacks armored forces, engineers, and reserves.

Analysts emphasize that talk in the West of negotiations instead of military support is a flawed strategy, as a diplomatic track is possible only on the basis of Ukrainian strength. Previous experience has shown that the euphoria surrounding diplomacy has not forced Moscow to back down from its goals; therefore, to achieve results, the West must increase pressure on Russia and step up support for Ukraine before the onset of winter.

Security expert Claudia Major and political scientist Christian Melling write about this in their analysis for the German publication Spiegel. 

Russia is ramping up missile pressure on Kyiv amid setbacks on the front lines and in negotiations. As The New York Times reports, the Kremlin is attempting to demonstrate its readiness for further escalation and to show strength, as it finds itself in a difficult situation both on the battlefield and in the diplomatic process.

Zelenskyy has published an open letter to Putin—full text.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow is allegedly ready for negotiations to end the war against Ukraine, but sees no willingness for dialogue on the Ukrainian side.

Putin is not changing course and continues to finance the war.