UNEP warns of likely breach of 1.5°C threshold — OilPrice
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) believes the world could exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold above pre-industrial levels as early as in the coming years. Even if all current climate commitments are met, the average global temperature will rise by at least 1.8°C, according to the organization, OilPrice reports.
Strategy after exceeding the threshold
In its report, UNEP proposed an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway: emissions must be rapidly reduced, the maximum level of warming should be kept as low as possible, and negative emissions should subsequently help return temperatures to 1.5°C or below. The organization stresses that the period of exceeding this level should be as short as possible.
This requires immediate cuts in all greenhouse gas emissions, the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as well as accelerated adaptation and climate change mitigation measures. UNEP notes that CO₂ removal cannot replace substantial emissions reductions.
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Risks and climate finance
Rising temperatures are associated with an increased risk of heatwaves, floods, glacier melt, sea-level rise and coral bleaching. The report also refers to the possible weakening or collapse of ocean currents that carry heat from the tropics northward.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres, during the presentation of the report, called for accelerating the phaseout of fossil fuels, the development of renewable energy and reductions in methane emissions. He also stated that developed countries must triple adaptation financing and direct it to those suffering most from climate risks.
Representatives of the least developed countries at the LDC Group meeting on climate change in September called for ensuring the delivery of financing, scaling up adaptation, addressing loss and damage, and achieving faster emissions cuts by countries with the greatest capacity and responsibility.
