Israel expects fewer than 2,000 Iranian missiles by the end of 2026 — Jerusalem Post
The IDF command in Israel expects Iran to have fewer than 2,000 ballistic missiles by the end of 2026 following strikes on production facilities and restrictions on supplies from China. This was reported by the Jerusalem Post, citing assessments by Israeli intelligence and military leadership headed by Chief of the General Staff Eyal Zamir.
According to the publication, before the war in June 2025, Tehran had between 2,500 and 3,000 ballistic missiles. The Israeli military believes that the destruction of equipment for rapid mass production of missiles, including planetary mixers, slowed the recovery of Iran's missile program.
At the same time, the IDF acknowledges that Iran quickly restored part of its production capabilities, while the presence of nearly 2,000 missiles remains a serious threat. According to estimates cited by the Jerusalem Post, the development of the Iranian missile threat was delayed by at least two years and, under more optimistic calculations, by up to four years.
Supplies from China
The Jerusalem Post writes that the Israeli command considers US actions an important factor. According to this assessment, Washington blocked most Chinese supplies of technologies and materials for Iran's missile industry through a counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
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Israel acknowledges that China helped Iran restore certain capabilities. At the same time, the IDF believes that without large-scale supplies of modern equipment, Tehran will be forced to use slower and less efficient production technologies. The publication notes that before June 2025, Iran's production pace could have led to the accumulation of more than 6,000 missiles earlier in 2026 and 8,800 by August 2027.
Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank
In parallel, the IDF assesses that Hezbollah's arsenal after the fighting in 2026 could amount to only about 10,000 rockets and mortar munitions, compared with 30,000–50,000 after the 2023–2024 war. Israeli forces maintain an approximately 10-kilometer security zone in southern Lebanon, which, according to the military's assessment, makes an incursion by the group into Israel impossible. At the same time, there is currently no process of disarming Hezbollah, and Israel's prolonged presence in Lebanon has no obvious exit strategy.
In the Gaza Strip, Zamir, according to the publication, warned that Hamas could gradually restore its threat to Israel if its capabilities are not constrained by political and diplomatic decisions or a new large-scale operation. In the West Bank, the Chief of the General Staff also demanded that the government strengthen efforts against violence by Jewish extremists and increased the number of forces maintaining order ahead of the autumn Jewish holidays.
