In Israel, neither bloc has a majority in polls ahead of elections
In Israel, 46 days before the general elections scheduled for October 27, polls give neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition enough seats to form a government. As Anadolu Agency reports, the opposition Yashar party led by former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot is ahead of Netanyahu's Likud in the polls.
Eisenkot also has higher ratings in polls on who is better suited for the post of prime minister. At the same time, Israel's head of government is not elected by direct vote: the task of forming a cabinet is given to a politician who can secure the support of at least 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset.
Distribution of seats
A poll by public broadcaster KAN, released on Wednesday evening, projects 52 seats each for Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition. Arab lawmakers could win 12 seats, while an alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha could receive four.
Hendel, who is classified among right-wing political forces, has not stated which bloc he would support during the formation of a government. The four seats held by his alliance are insufficient to provide either side with the required majority.
According to another poll released by Channel 13, both main camps would receive 53 seats each, while Arab lawmakers would get 14. Under such a distribution, the Jewish opposition could theoretically reach an agreement with Arab legislators to support an alternative government, but there are significant political obstacles to this.
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Risk of repeat elections
Leaders of most Jewish opposition parties reject the idea of forming a government with the support of Arab lawmakers. Netanyahu and his allies are focusing their campaign on warnings about a cabinet that would rely on such support. If agreements are reached, Arab lawmakers may put forward demands concerning the needs of Israel's Arab citizens and the rights of Palestinians in the occupied territories.
If the political configuration does not change, the country may once again face repeat elections. In that case, Netanyahu will remain prime minister of a caretaker government until an alternative cabinet is formed.
The Israel Democracy Institute also reported that 56% of respondents consider it highly likely that individual representatives of the side that loses the election will not recognize the announced results and may resort to force in an attempt to change them.
Netanyahu has led the current government since late December 2022. According to Anadolu Agency, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him in 2024 over war crimes against Palestinians in Gaza.
