Drought in South Africa threatens losses for wheat farmers — Daily Maverick
In South Africa’s Swartland region, farmer Migael Smuts expects his farm’s wheat revenue to fall by at least 30% in 2026 due to drought. In some fields, crop losses could reach 80% or more. At Grasrug, the family farm owned by the Smuts family for 140 years, wheat has already begun to dry up, Daily Maverick reports.
After wet April and May, Swartland received about 43 mm of rainfall from June to August, compared with an average of roughly 202 mm over the past 10 years. At Grasrug, July was the driest on record since observations began in 1968, while August was among the driest.
Less tillage, more herbicides
Smuts uses reduced-tillage practices to limit erosion and retain moisture. At the same time, weeds remain on the surface, and ryegrass is becoming increasingly difficult to control. According to the farmer, the less a field is ploughed, the more herbicides have to be sprayed on crops.
The season for farms begins with sowing canola in the second half of April and wheat in early May. Seeds need moisture immediately for germination. Fertilizers are applied during sowing, then added in June or July and around August to increase the protein content of the grain. Spring growth depends heavily on rainfall in September.
Costs are rising faster than grain prices
Rain-fed wheat from Swartland typically yields about three tonnes per hectare or less. By comparison, France’s average wheat yield in 2025 was about 7.4 tonnes per hectare. At the same time, most machinery and a significant share of production inputs for South African farms are imported, while grain prices depend on the international market.
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Data provided to Grain SA by a Swartland farmer show that direct production costs rose by about 65% between 2016 and 2026, while the farm-gate wheat price increased by approximately 36%. According to the National Agricultural Marketing Council, fertilizer prices rose by 38–67% in 2021–2025, depending on the type, while diesel costs increased by about 40%, to around 20 rand per litre.
South Africa is a net wheat importer, so domestic prices are linked to global prices. In the 2024/25 marketing year, the country imported 1.84 million tonnes of wheat, nearly half of national demand. Russia supplied 445,668 tonnes, the second-largest volume after Australia.
The smallest planted area since 1929
The area planted with wheat in South Africa in 2026 fell to 473,900 hectares, the lowest level since 1929. Smuts noted that some farmers had already faced difficulties financing planting after the previous average but loss-making season.
Canola generates higher returns and now occupies a larger area at Grasrug, but it cannot fully replace wheat. To limit the spread of blackleg disease, it should be planted in the same field only once every three years, and there are few major buyers of this crop. Smuts expects 2026 to be the third consecutive season of multimillion losses for his farm.
