The Kremlin may impose a requirement on Belarusians to fight for Russia — ISW
Russia is developing legal mechanisms that could allow it to enlist Belarusian citizens into its armed forces. According to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as of June 24, such steps may be part of the Kremlin’s efforts to tighten its control over Belarus and its military capabilities.
The ISW predicts that Russia may attempt to recruit Belarusians into its army through the legal framework of the Union State. According to the treaty establishing the Union State, Russians and Belarusians share a single citizenship status and, in theory, equal rights.
The Kremlin may go further—and argue that equal rights imply equal obligations. In other words, military service would become mandatory for Belarusians as well.
ISW analysts warn that Russian officials may insist that Belarusians serve either in the Russian army or in Moscow-controlled units of the Union State.
The legal basis for this would be the unified legislation of the Union State itself—without any separate agreements with Minsk.
In effect, this means that Belarus could become a de facto annexed territory from which Russia will draw human resources for the war, the Institute reports.
Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is attempting to draw Belarus deeper into the war against Ukraine and is considering new scenarios for aggression from its territory.
Belarus’s self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, held a meeting on military equipment and announced the preparation of a new state armament program for 2026–2030.
