Global LNG importers forecast to incur an additional $39 billion in costs in 2026 — OilPrice
Global importers of liquefied natural gas may spend at least $39 billion more on contract and spot purchases in 2026, even as volumes of LNG purchased decline by 60.7 million tonnes. This forecast by Rystad Energy analysts is cited by OilPrice.
Rystad Energy’s model assumes that LNG supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will be unavailable from March through the end of 2026. Under this scenario, importers’ total spending could rise from the previously estimated $217.8 billion to at least $256.3 billion, or by 18%.
Europe is forecast to face the largest costs
Europe, according to Rystad Energy’s estimate, will face the largest increase in spending: its LNG bill could rise by at least $12 billion, or 18%. At the same time, demand in the region is expected to fall by 24 million tonnes.
Before the conflict began, 24.7 million tonnes of Qatari LNG had been scheduled for Europe in 2026. Analysts believe the region will receive 20.6 million tonnes less than this volume. Europe already purchases about 65% of its LNG on the spot market, so its ability to significantly increase such purchases is limited.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
East Asia has greater contractual protection
East Asia is forecast to see a smaller relative increase in costs, at 9.7%. The share of spot purchases in the region stands at 14.5%, while a broader portfolio of contracts outside the Middle East and lower LNG demand partly reduce the risks of disruptions.
According to Rystad Energy, 82% of East Asia’s long-term LNG contracts are linked to oil prices. Prices under such contracts have risen by about 28%, while prices under contracts linked to gas hubs and spot benchmarks have increased by 72%. Europe’s average LNG price has risen by 47%, according to the company’s estimate.
Rystad Energy Senior Analyst for Gas & LNG Research Christoph Halser said that diversifying pricing benchmarks may help control costs but does not guarantee the physical availability of gas. According to him, importers should assess supply disruption risks alongside price risks and take into account the reliability of delivery routes.
