Brazilian ETF EWZ rises 14% after first election round — The Rio Times

In Brazil, the U.S.-traded iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rose 14% over five trading sessions after the first round of the presidential election, reaching $43.54 as of October 9, 2026. The Rio Times reports.

According to the publication, in the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes, while President Lula received 45.16%. The Ibovespa, the main index of the São Paulo stock exchange, rose 7.7% on October 5 and closed at a record 206,912 points. At the close of trading on October 9, the index was 8.8% higher than on October 2.

Share prices and the real’s exchange rate

In New York, EWZ gained 12.5% on October 5, rising from $38.19 to $42.98. Petrobras American depositary receipts increased 16.9% over the week, to $25.30, while Vale receipts fell 1%, to $13.62.

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An additional factor for dollar-denominated returns was the strengthening of the Brazilian real. According to The Rio Times, the dollar declined from 5.21 to 4.99 reais between October 2 and October 9, or by 4.2%. The publication links this to EWZ’s dollar return exceeding the rise in the real-denominated Ibovespa.

Expectations ahead of the second round

Asset managers cited by Bloomberg Línea linked the market reaction to expectations of tighter fiscal policy and the possibility of further interest-rate cuts. In September, Brazil’s central bank lowered the benchmark Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 13.75%.

The second round of the election between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula is scheduled for October 25, 2026. A Datafolha poll dated October 8 gave Bolsonaro 49% and Lula 45%. Recalculated as valid votes, this amounted to 52% versus 48%; the source noted that, with a margin of error of two percentage points, the race remains close.