In South Korea, share of people aged 65+ with dementia may rise to 10% by 2040
In South Korea, more than one in 10 people aged 65 and over may have dementia by 2040. According to a forecast by the country’s Ministry of Health and Welfare, the prevalence of dementia among this age group will reach 10.34% by the end of the next decade.
Forecast amid population aging
As The Korea Herald reports, in 2020 the rate among South Korean residents aged over 65 was 9.17%, and in 2025 it fell to 9.09%. At the same time, according to the ministry’s estimate, it will rise again in the future: by 2050, the share of people with dementia in this group may reach 11.81%.
The calculations are based on population projections and data from South Korea’s Ministry of Data and Statistics on dementia prevalence. In 2025, people aged 65 and over accounted for 20.3% of the country’s population, meeting the UN definition of a “super-aged society.” According to last year’s report by the Ministry of Data, the share of older people may exceed 30% in 2036 and 40% in 2050.
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Rising treatment costs
Against the backdrop of population aging, medical expenses related to dementia treatment are expected to continue rising. Treatment costs for patients aged 40 and over exceeded 1 trillion won for the first time in 2012, amounting to 1.16 trillion won. They exceeded 2 trillion won in 2016, 3 trillion won in 2020, and reached 3.37 trillion won in 2023.
The research institute affiliated with the National Health Insurance Service forecasts that, if the current trend continues, dementia-related expenses will total between 3.7 trillion and 4.4 trillion won by 2030. A significant share of these costs is attributable to patients aged 80 and over, especially women. Among men in this age group, expenses account for 52% of total dementia treatment costs; among women, they account for 82%.
Researchers also expect that in 2030 women will make up 65% of all patients with dementia, while more than half of patients will be people aged 80 and over.
