The founder of Thrive Capital cautioned venture capitalists against the hype surrounding AI
Joshua Kushner, founder of the New York-based venture capital firm Thrive Capital, urged investors in his first letter not to let their investment discipline slip amid the hype surrounding artificial intelligence. In the letter, which was obtained by Bloomberg, he noted that the scale of AI’s potential is hard to overestimate, but excessive enthusiasm should not replace well-considered investment decisions.
Kushner contrasted Thrive’s approach with a strategy common in Silicon Valley, in which venture capital funds make many bets, hoping that a few highly successful companies will offset the rest of the investments. According to him, Thrive focuses its time, capital, and resources on a small number of people and ideas in which the fund believes the most.
According to TechCrunch, Bloomberg estimates that about 90% of the capital in each Thrive fund is allocated to its 15 largest investments. Kushner also believes that AI will transform traditional industries not only through the emergence of new companies but also through changes within existing businesses.
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He cited the collaboration with OpenAI as an example of this approach. Thrive is a major investor in the lab, and Thrive Holdings—a separate division of the company that acquires businesses and works with OpenAI on AI implementation—has acquired over 70 companies and has a team of 35 engineers. In December 2025, OpenAI acquired a stake in Thrive Holdings. According to Kushner, this division’s accounting platform uses agents to prepare tax returns 30% faster with 98% accuracy, and the IT services company independently handles half of its support requests using agents.
Kushner reported that Thrive manages $60 billion in assets. The gross internal rate of return for all funds, according to his data, is 41%, while the net rate is 33%. Over the past 12 months, the company has returned more than $1 billion in liquidity to investors. He emphasized that rapid business growth does not always mean the business is exceptional, and an exceptional company is not necessarily a good investment at any price.
