Arestovich admitted to errors in his predictions about the war
Oleksiy Arestovych stated that a significant portion of his public predictions regarding the course of the full-scale war turned out to be incorrect. According to him, he misjudged a number of key factors that influenced the course of events.
Arestovych said the war has forced him to acknowledge his own uncertainty more often. “What this war has taught me is to say ‘I don’t know’ more often. Predicting this war with half-year precision turned out to be much easier than correctly assessing its development,” he wrote.
The former adviser noted that the scale of the changes that occurred after the start of the full-scale invasion exceeded the expectations not only of himself but also of many Western think tanks.
Among his biggest mistakes, Arestovych cited his assessment of the Russian leadership, the West’s potential for a civilizational shift, the prospects of the so-called “Global South,” and Ukraine’s resilience.
“My biggest mistakes: believing in Russia’s rationality, the European civilizational perspective, and the Ukrainian phenomenon, since it seemed that a rotten and ineffective system shouldn’t have been able to withstand five years of war, let alone launch a counteroffensive,” he noted.
Arestovych added that he does not regret his mistakes, as they have become an important learning experience for him. “First, we learn from our mistakes. Second, making mistakes is the privilege of a free person; only slaves are forbidden to speak while in formation. Third, all these years I have enjoyed the greatest privilege—to speak and act according to what I believed to be true. And the quality that this luxury brings to life and conscience is worth everything else,” he wrote.
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