Ukraine's underground gambling market has grown to 56.7%, according to a study
The international company KANTARconducted a follow-up study of Ukraine’s gambling market and found that the share of the illegal segment had grown from 52.1% to 56.7%. According to the study, the size of the shadow market has already exceeded 61.6 billion UAH. Additionally, 80.6% of respondents stated that they had used the services of illegal online casinos or betting platforms at least once.
Among the main reasons for the market’s shift toward the shadow economy are the ineffective blocking of illegal gambling sites and administrative restrictions on legal operators.
In 2026, the share of the illegal segment of Ukraine’s gambling market grew from 52.1% to 56.7%. This is evidenced by the results of the second study conducted by the international company KANTAR in March–May 2026. This is evidenced by the results of the second study conducted by the international company KANTAR, which were presented during a press briefing by Oleksandr Kogut, President of the Association of Ukrainian Gambling Operators.
"KANTAR is completing its second study, and we already have the results—an assessment of the actual size of the 'black' market in the Ukrainian gambling industry.
The results are significantly worse than we expected. The share of the illegal market in monetary terms has grown from 52.1% to 56.7%. The volume of the illegal market amounts to at least 61.6 billion UAH. The current trend is clear: the unlicensed segment is growing aggressively and continues to take market share from the legal market. Ukrainian players continue to migrate to the gray zone. Over 80.6% of respondents have already played at online casinos or placed bets through illegal operators in the last three months," Kogut emphasized.
FOR REFERENCE. The representative study was conducted among 2,500 respondents using the Kantar Access Panel—a platform that allows for analyzing consumer behavior, conducting representative surveys, and testing advertisements, brands, and products.
The Kantar survey identified the main reasons why Ukrainians choose illegal online casinos: speed of payouts (49% of respondents), no restrictions on play (44%), better bonuses (37%), the ability to optimize taxes (25%), and more convenient registration (18%). Among the motivations for players choosing illegal casinos are the ability to play and receive winnings using cryptocurrencies (6%) and circumventing legally established age restrictions (2%).
When assessing brand awareness among gambling operators, it was found that 15 of the top 30 brands known to and used by consumers belong to illegal gambling platforms. In total, the study analyzed the perception of 56 gambling operator brands—both legal and illegal—as identified by operators and market participants.
The study demonstrated for the second time that among the fundamental causes of market shadowing, the most significant are: ineffective blocking of illegal gambling platforms; administrative restrictions imposed on legal operators and players; the uninterrupted functioning within the banking system of “quasi-processing” services that serve illegal casinos; political conflicts and the associated reputational pressure surrounding the gambling industry. In addition, unlike legal companies, “illegals” use miscoding for payments and have better conditions for promoting their products: they are not restricted in their use of advertising and marketing tools, whereas advertising by licensed operators is strictly regulated by law.
"Today, the blocking of illegal operators, unfortunately, is proceeding extremely slowly, while most regulatory restrictions are focused specifically on the licensed segment. To reduce the size of the illegal market, a high-quality government program to combat illegal gambling is needed. If the situation remains the status quo and the legal market continues to be ‘squeezed’ under the guise of combating gambling addiction, the market’s shift in favor of illegal operators will only accelerate. Ukrainians will continue to flock to the unregulated segment, and the state will lose tax revenue due to the industry’s shift into the shadow economy,” Kogut noted.
Earlier, the AUOGB press service reported that the key problem in the fight against the “black” market remains the protracted procedure for blocking illegal sites: it takes at least 10 days to shut down a single illegal online casino, while mirror clone sites are created in 1–2 days.
In February 2026, the Association proposed a new algorithm for blocking illegal domains to the regulator, but it has not yet been implemented. The proposed mechanism provides for the immediate blocking of illegal sites and is already being used by the NBU and the NSDC to block phishing resources.
According to forecasts by the president of the AUOGB, based on the results of the first quarter of 2026, a decline in revenue in the legal segment of more than 10–15% is expected, which will obviously lead to a reduction in tax revenues from the industry in 2026.
In September 2025, KANTAR, Gradus, and Factum Group conducted independent comprehensive studies on the level of shadow economy activity in the gambling industry. According to their findings, the illegal segment accounted for between 39% and 53% of the market.
According to forecasts by the international company H2 Gambling Capital, the share of illegal gambling in Ukraine could rise to 58% by 2030.
The international company KANTAR conducts an independent study of the Ukrainian gambling market once every six months. The next study is scheduled for September–October 2026.#
FOR REFERENCE. According to preliminary data from the State Tax Service of Ukraine, the total revenue of the Ukrainian iGaming market in 2025 amounted to UAH 47.1 billion. According to estimates by the Association of Ukrainian Gambling Operators, the industry’s actual annual revenue in 2025 exceeded UAH 62.07 billion. The discrepancy in market volume estimates is due to the fact that not all operators submitted annual reports due to the expiration of their licenses.
In 2025, the Ukrainian gaming industry paid UAH 17.4 billion in taxes to the state budget. Between 2021 and 2025, the amount of taxes paid by the industry increased 72-fold (PHOTO 3). Tax revenue trends: in 2021 — 0.24 billion UAH; in 2022 — 0.72 billion UAH; in 2023 — 10.4 billion UAH; in 2024 — 17.1 billion UAH; in 2025 — 17.4 billion UAH.
The Association of Ukrainian Gaming Operators (AUGO) is an independent self-regulatory organization that brings together the eight largest licensed operators in Ukraine’s gaming industry. Members of the Association of Ukrainian Gambling Operators are the largest taxpayers in the industry and account for approximately 82% of the industry’s total tax revenue. The Association’s mission is to promote the development of the legal gambling market, establish transparent operating rules, raise responsible gaming standards, and combat illegal gambling.
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