Sugar production in Ukraine may decline due to the effects of the spring's inclement weather
Ukrainian sugar producers preliminarily estimate that approximately 1.2 million tons of sugar will be produced in the country during the new season. However, final figures may turn out to be lower due to the negative impact of spring frosts and dust storms on sugar beet crops.
According to the National Association of Sugar Producers of Ukraine “Ukrtsukor,” farmers planted about 162,000 hectares with sugar beets this year.
It is based on these areas that a preliminary forecast of sugar production at 1.2 million tons has been made.
Association Chair Yana Kavushevska noted that the industry has sufficient production capacity, but the final result will largely depend on weather conditions throughout the growing season.
Experts are currently continuing to analyze the condition of the crops following a difficult spring. In April, sugar beets suffered from several waves of frost, and in May, dust storms caused additional damage. In some regions, the damage was significant, so farmers are still assessing the extent of the losses.
According to Kavushevska, weather anomalies are already reducing the chances of repeating the high yield figures recorded last year. Because of this, a downward revision of the sugar production forecast cannot be ruled out.
At the same time, the association assures that even under a less optimistic scenario, the domestic market will be fully supplied with sugar. Since the start of the full-scale war, consumption of this product in Ukraine has gradually declined: whereas it previously stood at around 900,000 tons per year, it is now estimated at approximately 800,000 tons.
Even if the harvest is reduced, Ukraine will retain the capacity to export sugar, which will allow it to continue supplying products to foreign markets.
The situation on the global market remains an additional factor for the industry. In May, global sugar prices showed the fastest growth in recent months. The main reasons were concerns about a reduction in global supply and risks to the future sugarcane harvest in key producing countries.
At the same time, a more rapid price increase was tempered by positive news from Brazil, where sugarcane processing volumes increased in late April. This allowed for an increase in sugar production and partially alleviated concerns among global market participants.
Thus, the Ukrainian sugar industry is entering the new season with a sufficient margin of safety; however, the final results of the campaign will largely depend on future weather conditions and the condition of crops during the summer.
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