In six months, the Russian military has captured less territory in Ukraine than it has lost — ISW
Ukrainian forces largely halted Russia’s spring-summer offensive in 2026, and Russian troops were able to gain a foothold in only a small portion of the territory in May.
According to analysts, from December 2025 to May 2026, Russian troops captured or infiltrated an area of 40.64 square kilometers. At the same time, during this same period, they lost control of 281.1 square kilometers of territory, if only fully controlled areas are taken into account.
The ISW notes that the Russian army actively employs infiltration tactics, in which small groups of soldiers penetrate between Ukrainian positions without establishing full control over the area.
Analysts emphasize that part of the lost territory is related to an update in the assessment methodology. Some areas were reclassified from the “Russian advance” category to “infiltration zones,” so this does not mean that these territories were automatically liberated by Ukrainian forces.
Compared to the same period a year earlier, the pace of Russian advancement has slowed significantly. While Russian troops advanced 515.84 square kilometers from December 2024 to May 2025, they advanced only 40.64 square kilometers during the same period in 2025–2026.
Thus, this year’s advance amounts to only 7.87% of last year’s figure.
According to the ISW, the slowdown in the Russian offensive is not due to seasonal weather conditions but to changes on the battlefield. Among the key factors, analysts cite Ukrainian counterattacks, strikes on targets deep within Russia, blocking Russian troops’ access to Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s restrictions on access to Telegram.
Source: ISW.
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