Estonian Intelligence Reports Dangerous Situation on the Front in Ukraine
The Defense Forces Intelligence Center of Estonia reported that due to the massive use of drones, Ukraine’s frontline areas have become extremely “transparent,” and the battlefield is more dangerous than ever before.
The summary from Estonian intelligence was cited by ERR.
In its briefing, Estonian intelligence analyzed changes in the course of hostilities over the four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
“On the battlefield, drones of various types now dominate; it has become unprecedentedly ‘transparent’ and more dangerous than ever before. Breakthroughs have shifted to infiltration tactics, frontline sections are being cut off from logistical support and fragmented, and high-precision long-range strikes are used to weaken the will and capability of the enemy to continue the war,” the review states.
According to intelligence, this week the overall intensity of hostilities has slightly decreased: on average, 170 combat engagements occurred per day.
The intelligence center noted that over the past week Ukrainian units continued active defense and counterattacks, successfully pushing back Russian forces in the Kupiansk, Novopavlivka, Oleksandrivka, and Huliaipole directions, as well as in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region.
“According to various estimates, in February Ukrainian units liberated between 200 and 400 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and continue to resist the aggressor,” the intelligence center added.
From a military perspective, according to the intelligence center, Russia’s successes have been limited, and by some indicators, the situation of the Russian Federation at the start of the fifth year of the full-scale war is even worse than before 2022.
“At present, the Russian Federation has managed to occupy 20% of Ukraine’s territory, while in 2025 it captured less than one percent of territory. Russia has lost between 1.2 and 1.3 million service members in the war. During 2025, when infantry became dominant in drone-based attacks, Russia lost an average of 90 personnel per each square kilometer captured,” the intelligence center stated.
The Air Forces effectively shoot down Russian missiles and drones thanks to F-16s and new air defense approaches, — Defense Express.
It is noted that Ukraine is discussing the creation of joint consortia with partners to accelerate the production of anti-ballistic missiles. At the same time, Ukrainian defense companies have the potential to independently produce such systems.
Previously, Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukraine has NASAMS air defense systems in operation, which partially protect the country’s priority facilities.
According to Serhiy Zhovkva, Ukraine needs air defense systems of various calibers, similar to those in Japan. This will allow more effective protection of the country’s airspace and increase overall defense capability.
