The Main Intelligence Directorate assessed the size of the Belarusian army and the level of threat to the northern sector
The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine analyzed the potential risks posed by Belarus as of June 23 and reported that the total strength of its armed forces is approximately 70,000 personnel, of whom about 20,000 are civilian personnel. The level of threat to Ukraine’s northern regions is assessed separately.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate, there are actually 48,810 military personnel serving in the Belarusian armed forces, meaning the army is 69.7% manned. For example, the ground forces number 13,810 personnel, while the air force and air defense forces number 11,040, and the special operations forces number 6,400.
Intelligence sources explained that the Belarusian army is staffed according to a mixed system: 60% are contract soldiers, and 40% are conscripts.
Among military equipment and weapons, the most numerous items in our northern neighbor’s army are armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles.
“Belarus’s state armament program, taking into account the experience of modern military conflicts and maintaining a course toward selective modernization based on the principle of ‘reasonable sufficiency,’ will prioritize electronic warfare, reconnaissance, communications, counter-battery warfare, and short-range air defense,” the Main Intelligence Directorate notes.
Regarding the threat to Ukraine from the Belarusian direction, intelligence analysts noted that it currently remains “potential, yet limited in nature,” according to Glavkom.
Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is attempting to draw Belarus deeper into the war against Ukraine and is considering new scenarios for aggression from its territory.
Belarus’s self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, held a meeting on military equipment and announced the preparation of a new state armament program for 2026–2030.
