JPMorgan has predicted a "Finnish scenario" for the end of the war in Ukraine
Analysts at the U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase believe that the most likely outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine is the so-called “Finnish scenario.” It involves the loss of some territory, but the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty and its alignment with the West.
This is stated in the bank’s report titled “Ukraine Endgame: The Path to an Imperfect Peace.”
The document notes that the war is increasingly reaching a stalemate, and the front line has not changed significantly for over two years. That is why, according to analysts, the future of the conflict will be determined not on the battlefield, but at the negotiating table.
JPMorgan suggests that as part of a possible compromise, Ukraine may agree to neutral status and certain restrictions on the size and capabilities of its military. At the same time, Russia will attempt to present this as its own victory, even though it will not achieve Ukraine’s complete surrender.
Analysts compare this potential scenario to post-war Finland, which lost about 10% of its territory after the war with the USSR but retained its democracy, market economy, and ties to the West.
For Ukraine, according to the bank, this would mean gradual integration into the European Union and, likely, NATO, though without the immediate extension of collective defense guarantees under Article 5 of the Alliance.
JPMorgan also noted that just a year ago, the “Georgian scenario”—in which Kyiv could return to Moscow’s sphere of influence—was considered the baseline for Ukraine. However, the forecast has now been revised due to increased EU support for Ukraine.
According to the bank’s assessment, the probability of the scenarios is as follows:
- “Finnish scenario” — 50%;
- “Georgian scenario” — 30%;
- “Israeli scenario” — 10%;
- the “South Korea” and “Belarus” models — 5% each.
Earlier, Turkey stated that it is actively participating in ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Officials in Ankara say they want to help facilitate a diplomatic resolution to the war and maintain stability in the Black Sea region.
Ukraine is ready for dialogue with Russia provided Moscow is genuinely committed to serious talks, but such meetings require careful preparation. Any direct contacts between the leaders of the warring states do not occur spontaneously or via ordinary telephone communication.
