Following the closure of ports, logistics costs for grain exports from Ukraine have risen
Logistics costs for Ukrainian grain exports have already risen by $50 per metric ton following the shutdown of seaports. At the same time, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine acknowledges that the price increase could reach $70 per metric ton in the near future.
According to Vysotsky, the suspension of seaport operations has directly affected the cost of transporting Ukrainian agricultural products.
“Logistics costs have risen by an additional $50 per metric ton. They may increase by $70 per metric ton compared to before the ports were shut down,” the minister noted.
At the same time, he emphasized that Ukraine has alternative routes for grain exports that can partially offset the restrictions on maritime transport.
“Of course, they can’t handle 5 million metric tons of exports. But there is capacity for up to 3 million metric tons per year (likely referring to monthly volume—Ed.). We’re working on new solutions. All of this will ease the market frenzy, and prices will stabilize,” Vysotsky assured.
According to available information, no ships have been calling at Ukraine’s seaports since July 21, 2026, prompting the authorities to consider activating alternative routes and reviving the so-called “Solidarity Routes.”
At the same time, according to estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine, the forced suspension of seaport operations in the second half of the year could cost Ukraine more than $2 billion in export revenue.
Against the backdrop of these restrictions, Ukrzaliznytsia is seeking additional routes for exporting Ukrainian grain, specifically working to expand alternative routes.
The Minister of Agrarian Policy previously emphasized that Ukraine has a well-developed network of alternative export routes and sufficient grain storage capacity.
According to Vysotsky, even under favorable conditions, rail, road, and Danube routes can account for only 45–50% of Ukraine’s annual agricultural exports.
Russian shelling of port infrastructure in the Odesa region and low water levels in the Danube remain additional risk factors.
Due to logistical challenges, Ukraine has also lowered its grain export forecast for the 2026–2027 season by 12% compared to the previous estimate—to 38–40 million metric tons.
On August 11, Ukraine began considering a rail route through Moldova to the Romanian port of Constanța as an alternative to maritime grain shipments.
Kyiv has already appealed to Chisinau to establish a preferential tariff for the transit of Ukrainian cargo.
In this way, Ukrainian authorities are seeking to expand overland and Danube routes to reduce the dependence of exports on Black Sea ports and curb further increases in logistics costs.
This was stated by Taras Vysotsky, Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, in an interview with LIGA.net.
As a reminder, Ukraine may face a critical shortage of grain storage capacity as early as November 2026. This is due to systematic Russian strikes on the port infrastructure of the Greater Odesa region, which have significantly hampered the export of Ukrainian agricultural products.
On August 10, Turkey began restricting passage through the Dardanelles for certain commercial vessels bound for ports in Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, Turkish officials note that these restrictions may be temporary.
