Russia may produce 1,400 missiles before the first Ukrainian Patriot interceptor is deployed
Russia may be able to produce about 1,400 “Iskander-M” short-range ballistic missiles by the time Ukraine receives its first Patriot interceptor. This view was expressed by Julian Röpke, a German journalist and military analyst for Bild.
According to him, implementing plans to localize the production of interceptor missiles will take a significant amount of time. He noted that it could take about two years from the moment of official confirmation of these intentions to the launch of the first missile.
Röpke also pointed out that, according to U.S. President Donald Trump, the manufacturer has not yet been officially notified of these plans, and all necessary contracts are currently still in the drafting stage.
The analyst emphasized that negotiating such agreements—particularly those concerning intellectual property and manufacturing cooperation—typically takes months.
Citing expert estimates, Röpke stated that Russia is currently capable of producing approximately 700 “Iskander-M” ballistic missiles per year. In his view, during the time it would take to launch production of Ukrainian Patriot interceptors, Russia could manufacture more than 1,400 such missiles.
“I can tell you from my own experience that just the negotiations to conclude these contracts, the discussions on intellectual property issues, and so on take months. So, in short, Russia will be able to produce more than 1,400 Iskander-M missiles before Ukraine can produce its first Patriot interceptor. That is truly a huge number. Unfortunately, these aren’t my figures, but data from experts who claim that Russia currently produces about 700 “Iskander-M” short-range ballistic missiles annually,” Röpke noted.
The Bild columnist reported this on July 10 on his page on social media platform X.
As a reminder, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States may grant Ukraine the right to independently produce missiles for Patriot air defense systems.
Ukraine is moving closer to producing Patriot missiles on its own territory.
In the coming days, Ukraine will receive a new aid package from the U.S., which will include PAC-3 anti-ballistic missiles for the Patriot air defense systems.
