Russian economists have significantly lowered their forecasts for the Russian economy

Russian analysts have revised their forecast for the country's economy downward: they expect higher inflation, slower GDP growth, and lower oil prices, and, according to new estimates, the country will not be able to return to its 4% inflation target until 2029. 

According to the updated forecasts, annual inflation at the end of 2026 will stand at 6.2%, although just a month ago, the expectation was 5.3%. The forecast for 2027 has also been revised downward—from 4.4% to 4.6%.

Due to the worsening inflation outlook, economists have also raised their forecast for the Russian Central Bank’s key rate. According to their estimates, it will now average 14.5% in 2026 and 12.2% in 2027. A rate cut is not expected until at least 2028.

At the same time, economic growth expectations have also worsened. While analysts previously forecast Russian GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026, they now expect only 0.6%. The forecast for 2027 has also been lowered—from 1.5% to 1.3%.

In addition, experts have revised their forecast for the average price of Russian oil, which is used to calculate taxes. For 2026, expectations have been lowered from $70 to $63 per barrel. The forecast for 2027 is $58, and for 2028–2029, it is $57 per barrel.

At the same time, estimates for the ruble exchange rate have remained virtually unchanged. According to forecasts, the average exchange rate in 2026 will be 78.4 rubles per dollar, and in 2027—86.6 rubles.

The deterioration in economic forecasts comes amid a fuel crisis that has intensified following strikes on Russia’s oil refining and energy infrastructure. Earlier, the Bank of Russia reported that the direct impact of the fuel shortage alone added 0.33 percentage points to June’s inflation rate, not counting the rise in logistics and transportation costs.

This was reported by “Glavkom,” citing the Bank of Russia’s July macroeconomic survey.

After three years of unexpected economic growth, Russia is facing a sudden slowdown—war costs, inflation, and falling oil prices have begun to weigh on an economy that, until recently, seemed resilient to sanctions.

Russian business is currently in a state of controlled collapse

Consumer lending in Russia has fallen to a six-year low.