Russia is losing its main advantage in the war against Ukraine – CNN

In Russia, the rate of recruitment of new soldiers to fight the war in Ukraine is rapidly declining, which is beginning to trigger a systemic crisis within the country. 

Despite an aggressive advertising campaign on billboards and social media, promises of fast-track citizenship, and significant financial incentives—including lump-sum payments of up to $80,000 and debt forgiveness of up to $140,000—the flow of people willing to sign contracts has significantly decreased.

According to Western analysts, in the first quarter of 2026, the rate of enlistment for contract service in the Russian Federation fell by 20% compared to the same period last year. Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, notes that Moscow is currently losing more manpower on the battlefield than it is able to recruit into the army. Western intelligence estimates Russia’s total irreplaceable losses since the start of the full-scale invasion at around 500,000 personnel, while monthly losses range from 30,000 to 35,000 fighters. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed this trend, stating that in May alone, Ukrainian drone units eliminated or wounded more invaders than the Kremlin was able to recruit during the same period.

In an attempt to address the manpower shortage, Moscow has already sent tens of thousands of prisoners to the front lines, brought in three waves of troops from North Korea, and is actively recruiting migrants and debtors. Given the ineffectiveness of these measures, experts do not rule out the announcement of a second wave of forced mobilization, accompanied by the closure of borders for men of draft age. At the same time, the mass depletion of the working-age population sent to the front has led to the most acute labor shortage in Russian history, which is severely impacting the civilian sector of the economy. Military factories are already operating at the limit of their maximum round-the-clock capacity, and wage growth is failing to keep pace with rapid inflation, as a result of which prices for basic foodstuffs in the aggressor country have jumped by more than 18%.

 CNN reports this.