Russians are being prepared for the impossibility of a military victory over Ukraine
In the Russian Federation—both in propaganda tabloids and in analytical publications close to the Kremlin—there has recently been a surge in publications aimed at convincing the domestic audience that the initial objectives of the so-called “special military operation” cannot be achieved.
They are trying to convince Russian citizens that the current stalemate on the front lines—or even an actual defeat followed by the signing of a ceasefire—will ultimately benefit the country.
Experts note that Moscow’s latest aggressive rhetoric—in particular, calls for foreign diplomats to urgently leave Kyiv, as well as the unprecedentedly massive and brutal missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities (such as the latest large-scale shelling of Kyiv and Dnipro on June 2)—is not actually a sign of strength. Western analysts and sources close to the Russian Foreign Ministry (particularly at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations) assert that this escalation is the Kremlin’s convulsive reaction to the significant expansion of the geography of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory and the apparent slowdown in the advance of the occupying forces. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin still hopes to capture the remaining parts of Donbas within a few months in order to enter negotiations from a position of strength, but the actual situation on the battlefield shows stagnation. Estonian Foreign Minister Jonathan Veseviov emphasized that the Kremlin is attempting to lure the West into a “negotiation trap” at the last moment, as the illusion that time is on Russia’s side has finally been dispelled.
A striking confirmation of the shift in media narrative was the cynical article by Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE), titled “The Cast-Iron Prose of Reality,” published in the journal “Russia in Global Politics” (the publication is headed by Fyodor Lukyanov, and whose editorial board includes Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the notorious Sergey Karaganov). The author openly acknowledges that the war is being waged between opponents of comparable strength, and therefore the stalemate cannot be broken in the near future. Moreover, Kashin effectively refutes the Russian Ministry of Defense’s lie about “strikes exclusively on military targets,” stating outright that Russian attacks are being carried out to the fullest extent possible to inflict colossal economic damage on Ukraine and freeze residential buildings in the winter. However, he notes that even this, like the potential use of nuclear weapons, will not bring Moscow the desired result.
In light of this, experts close to the Kremlin are proposing to urgently adjust the war’s objectives and agree to freeze the front line on the terms previously announced by Putin, attempting to present this to the domestic audience as a “full-fledged military victory.” At the same time, Kremlin analysts are urging the public to completely abandon any illusions that the Russian front is capable of a rapid breakthrough. It is noteworthy that such arguments have begun to seep into even the mainstream media — the publication “Moskovsky Komsomolets” ran an article (which was later hastily removed) in which readers were convinced that “lost wars and humiliating truces” have historically always benefited Russia, stimulating domestic reforms and curbing the excesses of the elites.
This is reported by The Washington Post.
Russian business is currently in a state of managed collapse
After three years of unexpected economic growth, Russia is facing a sudden slowdown—war costs, inflation, and falling oil prices have begun to weigh on an economy that until recently seemed resilient to sanctions.
Consumer lending in Russia has fallen to a six-year low.
