Intelligence warned of a budget shortfall in Russia amid billions in military spending

Russia has acknowledged the risk of a shortfall in budget revenues in 2027–2029. According to an assessment by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, without the introduction of new taxes, Russia’s financial resources may only last until 2028, while significant funds continue to be allocated to military needs.

 

The Russian State Duma’s Committee on Budget and Taxes acknowledged that the federal budget may not receive the planned revenues in 2027–2029. However, this did not prevent lawmakers from giving the draft a positive assessment.

According to Moscow’s estimates, budget revenues are expected to rise from $537.5 billion in 2027 to $603.6 billion in 2029. At the same time, expenditures will exceed revenues each year, and the deficit will amount to $63.6–67.6 billion, or 1.9–2.2% of GDP.

One of the main threats to the budget remains the slowdown in the Russian economy. Due to expensive loans and the deteriorating financial condition of enterprises, Moscow risks falling short on corporate income tax revenue.

Plans regarding oil and gas revenues also appear contradictory.

The Russian government forecasts a drop in the export price of Russian oil from $61.2 per barrel in 2026 to $51 in 2029. Despite this, revenues from the sector are projected to increase from $87 billion in 2027 to $95.9 billion in 2029.

The State Duma itself acknowledges that instability in energy markets could derail these projections.

Another problem is the rising cost of servicing the national debt. In 2027, these costs will amount to $56.7 billion, and in 2029, they will reach $70.5 billion.

Despite these budgetary risks, the Kremlin plans to allocate more than $212 billion to defense alone in 2027.

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

Russian authorities sold confiscated property worth nearly $5 billion to cover the budget deficit.

Russian billionaires have donated over $5.6 billion to the Russian Federation’s budget, according to Reuters.

The war is draining the Russian budget, and debt is growing faster than revenue—Bloomberg